Fearless Fosdick's Financial Forecasts

Financial forecasts are the consequences of trends.
Trends may be disrupted by cataclysmic events.
But it helps to have some idea
Of how trends might affect the financial future.

For example, the (almost) free ride called Medicare
That oldsters receive from the taxpayers
Is about to go bust,
Leaving recipients holding the bag.

When Medicare dies, health premiums will skyrocket
For those with substantial resources.
Those without will be thrown to Medicaid,
Which effectively means no health care at all.

Climbing out of recession, productivity has improved
But unemployment continues at a high level.
Two plus two still equals four
So a lot of lost jobs will never return.

The wage differential will continue to narrow
Between developing and mature economies.
Just as water seeks the lower level, wages for
Similar work must decline in the latter.

The hurt becomes especially painful
For those with college degrees
Who have no job and student loans yet to pay,
Resulting in a surplus of over-educated applicants.

The (formerly) richest country in the world
Has acquired third world characteristics.
The republic can no longer afford to be
The keeper as well as the guardian of its citizens.

The next casualty of taxpayer largesse
Will be the gradual demise of Social Security.
This gigantic Ponzi scheme will be no "security"
For the hordes of Baby Boomers ready to retire.

The good side is that increases in tax deferred investment plans
Will expand the capital available for invention and innovation.
The down side is that the indigent and feckless
Will be more dependent on the kindness of strangers.

It is a sober picture of a widening gap
Between the haves and the have-nots.
As the median standard of living in the USA
Sinks slowly toward the base line of emerging nations.

Demand subsides as consumption decreases.
The national economy reaches stasis at a lower level.
Immigration, legal or not, slows to a trickle.
Population begins a gradual decline.

Scott Brown, U.S. Senator

The people of Massachusetts spoke -- loudly.
Martha Coakley did not lose the race;
Scott Brown won, going away.
His latest ad included these statements:

"We can send another rubber stamp to Washington,
Or we can try something new:
We can elect an independent voice for all of
Massachusetts, and that's the
United States Senator I promise to be.

The choice we make will send a powerful message to
The big spenders in Washington.
They need to quit expanding our government and
Defending wasteful spending, and start
Expanding this economy and defending out jobs.

I want to be a voice for the people.
I'm alarmed that our nation's spending and debt
Has risen along with unemployment.

I do not think we should plunge ahead with a
Health care bill that will raise taxes, increase
Spending, and lower the quality of care.
I'd like to see us start over and take our time
To do it right.

I got a chance to fully appreciate the true spirit
Of the people of Massachusetts.
They are the most patriotic, hard-working and
Optimistic people in the world.
I have come away with a much
Deeper love and appreciation for them.

For all that, and for the privilege of meeting
With you in you neighborhoods, your homes, and
Where you work, I thank you."

You can't help but like this guy.
The pickup truck, the barn jacket,
The aw-shucks demeanor won people over
All across the commonwealth of Massachusetts.
Remember Mr. Smith Goes to Washington?
Here he is, and a seasoned pol to boot.

Strategy and Objectives

The president wants to make it clear that
The U.S. commitment in Afghanistan is not open-ended.
How many additional troops would be sent, he asks,
And what is the timeline for their presence in the war zone?

The war is now in its ninth year and is
Claiming U.S. lives at a record pace.
Military leaders say the Taliban
Has the upper hand in many parts of the country.

(AP dispatch, November 12, 2009)

The old management professor asks,
What are our interests in this theater?
What are we attempting to accomplish?
How will we know that we have succeeded?

Then, and only then, can the following decisions be made:
A plan for getting the job done.
The resources necessary for executing the plan.
Measurements of success at stated intervals.

If we don't have these in place, we are throwing
Young lives into futile gestures.
The president is correct in raising concrete demands.
He answers to the people whose sons and daughters are at risk.

From a Minor Prophet

In the third century of that great nation, a false messiah captivated the people.
He promised to make their bodies whole and their spirits soar.
He tried to achieve peace with foreign countries by apologizing for past wrongs.
He wasted the lives of young warriors in futile pursuit of fleeing enemies.

The word of The Lord came to the prophet in a dream.
Proclaim the errors of the king to all who would listen,
For he is wasting the substance of his subjects.
Soon both the treasury and the granaries will be no more.

The king would not listen.
He was not an evil man, but a proud man,
Who believed that The Lord had anointed him to accomplish the impossible.
By wishing, and by speaking, he could make miracles happen.

The prophet warned him that he was worshiping hubris, a false god.
The warnings of the prophet were echoed by wise persons.
You will be judged by history as a wastrel, full of empty ambition.
So the king repented, and put on sackcloth and ashes.

He withdrew his brave young people from harm's way.
He stopped the plan to cure all illness with money alone.
He banished the courtiers who would control all aspects of his subjects' lives.
He restored the soundness of the treasury by eliminating needless spending.
He sought common ground for the improvement of the nation and the world.
And The Lord rewarded him for wise rule by giving him a peaceful reign.

Secession Movements

You may think that groups which recommend secession from the U.S.A. are various forms of nuthatches;
And you would be correct in most cases, particularly those which wish to refight the Civil War.
But some supporters of secession movements are quite serious in their desire for less central control of their lives;
And see separation from their parent country, U.S.A. or Canada, as the only rational means to achieve freedom.

The Second Vermont Republic has a firm intellectual footing that has given rise to expanded media coverage.
The Texas Nationalist Movement has history on its side as well as a well-organized website and membership drive.
The Alaska Independence Party wants to be able to vote on its status, with a separate and independent nation one of four choices.
Hawai'i Constitutional Conventions are held periodically to seek national sovereignty for native Hawaiians.

The League of the South appears to be a revised confederacy, with chapters in every state of the former nation.
Their program is gentle and professedly free of racism, but determinedly Christian and Anglo-Saxon in tone.
California has two obsolete websites devoted to independence; surprising considering the turmoil in governance of the state.
A piece just recently appeared in The Guardian (U.K.) describing California as the first failed U.S. state.

The titles Novacadia and Cascadia are used by nascent efforts to join U.S. states and Canadian provinces on each coast
In the formation of independent countries, sharing resources and government structures.
Neither is more than an idea at present; other Canadian movements including Parti Quebecois, seem to be moribund.
Patriots for Liberty in Massachusets and Republic of New Hampshire are go it alone websites, with no supporting organization.

So you have to say that balkanization is not yet considered a viable option by the citizens of the U.S. or Canada.
And would doubtless gain little traction unless grass roots protests like the tea parties grow up to become non-violent revolutions.
Causing nervous politicians to have to decide whether to try to head off or lead the body politic in the way it wants to go.
Paul Starobin's article, Imaging Breaking Up, in the Wall Street Journal, of June 13, 2009, is the genesis of such consideration.

Education

The Republic of New England shall have no public schools,
Supported by taxes and free to all.
Instead, religious and civic organizations may establish schools
To which parents pay tuition, perhaps on a sliding scale.

This system worked well for parochial schools,
And could be replicated on a larger scale.
Charter schools exemplify achievment at the elementary level.
Education is a privilege, not a right.

Advanced education will be apprentice programs for careers,
In institutions sponsored by the industries who need their graduates.
Literature and arts will depend upon the public and eleemosynary organizations
To support those who pursue aesthetic disciplines.

There is no place in the Republic of New England
For those who do not seek to better themselves
In the pursuit of knowledge and its application to the common good.
No occupation is less worthy than any other.

Currency and Debt

The Republic of New England will carry no debt.
All our expenditures will be pay as you go.
We will never borrow from our citizens
Through the medium of bonds or notes.

When we separate from the U.S.A. we will abandon their debt.
New England has received far less than other regions in return on taxes
So we don't have any financial obligation to their federal government.
Besides, we have nothing in our treasury to give them.

We talked about currency a great deal and came up with an inspiration.
The Republic certainly does not wish to use the U.S. dollar.
Printing currency of our own presents special problems
Of convertibility and fluctuation in value.

So we decided to join the European Economic Union.
They will be glad to have such a frugal member.
Then the Euro can become our currency
And help us to enjoy our lovely vacations on the continent.

Italy has Dante on their euro.
We could have The Old Man on the Mountain on ours,
As a symbol of New England thrift,
And a reminder that we too could crumble into dust.